July 6, 2026
Most care home feasibility models focus on build cost. But build cost on its own tells you nothing.
What matters is whether the fees the home will earn justify what it costs to build. And a lot of investors get that calculation wrong — usually by being too optimistic on occupancy and too vague on operating costs.
This guide walks through how to connect construction spend to actual returns. No fluff. Just the numbers, where they come from, and what they mean.
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£1,300/wk average UK residential care fee in 2026 |
55–65% of fee income consumed by staffing alone |
12–18 months typical fill-up period before a new home reaches stable occupancy |
Most investors do this backwards. They find a site, model a build cost, then ask “what do I need to charge?”
The right order is the opposite. Start with what the market will pay in your location, then work back to see whether a build stacks up.
UK care home fees in 2026:
• Residential care: around £1,300 per week on average
• Nursing care: around £1,535 per week
• Dementia care: £1,400–£1,800 per week, depending on complexity
• London and the South East: typically 20–35% above the national average
• North of England: often 20–25% below
These are self-funded (private pay) rates. Local authority rates are lower — usually £150–£300 per week below private pay. A home that relies heavily on council-funded placements will earn less, which directly compresses the return on your build cost.
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The fee rate your location can support is the single most important input in your model. Get a real figure from local operators or brokers before you spend anything on design. |
Fee income is not profit. Most of it goes straight back out the door on running the home.
Here is where the money goes in a typical 60-80 bed home at stable occupancy:
|
Cost line |
% of fee income |
Notes |
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Staffing |
55–65% |
The single biggest line. Includes care staff, management, catering, domestic, maintenance |
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Food and consumables |
5–8% |
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Utilities and rates |
3–5% |
Higher for older, poorly insulated stock |
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Insurance, regulatory, admin |
2–4% |
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Maintenance and capex reserve |
2–4% |
Often skipped in models. A mistake |
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Total operating costs |
67–86% |
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EBITDARM margin |
14–33% |
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, rent, management |
The 60–80 bed sweet spot matters here. A 30-bed home has nearly the same fixed staffing overhead as a 60-bed home, but half the income to cover it. That is why smaller homes consistently run thin or negative margins.
We covered this in detail in our guide on ideal care home sizing. The short version: below 50 beds, margins get uncomfortable fast.
Care homes are valued primarily on their earnings, not their bricks. The number used is EBITDARM: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, rent, and management fees.
It sounds like jargon. It is not. It is just the operating profit of the business before the cost of owning the building is deducted. Investors use it because it separates the quality of the care business from the cost of the asset that houses it.
A typical 60-80 bed home at stable occupancy will generate EBITDARM of roughly 26–29% of total fee income. For a 70-bed home charging £1,450 per week at 85% occupancy, that looks like:
|
Metric |
Calculation |
Figure |
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Weekly fee income |
70 beds × 85% occupancy × £1,450 |
£86,000/week |
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Annual fee income |
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£4.5m |
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EBITDARM at 28% |
£4.5m × 0.28 |
£1.26m |
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Valuation at 8% yield |
£1.26m ÷ 0.08 |
£15.75m |
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Valuation at 6% yield (prime) |
£1.26m ÷ 0.06 |
£21m |
Investment yields for care homes sit between 5.25% and 10% in 2026, depending on the quality of the building, the strength of the operator, and the location. Prime purpose-built homes with strong covenants price at 5.25–6%. Secondary stock trades at 8–10%.
That yield range has a huge effect on exit value. The same £1.26m of EBITDARM is worth £15.75m at 8% or £21m at 6%. Build the better building and you capture that difference.
A 70-bed home in the South East costs roughly £19m all-in to develop (land, construction, fees, FF&E, contingency, finance). We modelled this in our care home build cost guide.
The basic return test is this:
|
Test |
Figure |
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Total development cost |
£19m (£271k per bed) |
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Stabilised EBITDARM |
£1.26m (at 28% margin) |
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Return on cost (EBITDARM / total cost) |
6.6% |
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Market yield for this quality / location |
6.5–7% |
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Verdict |
Viable — exit value roughly covers total cost |
This is a thin margin. You are not building in a big cushion. That is normal for new-build care homes in the South East — the case is made on long-term income, asset appreciation, and the CQC rating premium, not a quick flip.
Run the same model for a lower-fee area. In a market where residential rates average £900 per week, a 70-bed home generates roughly £3.1m annual income at the same occupancy. EBITDARM at 28% is £870k. At 8% yield, the home is worth £10.9m. A build that costs £14–16m all-in in a Midlands location does not work at those numbers without LA block contracts or a specialist premium.
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The build cost model is only as good as the fee assumption underneath it. A £200/week error in your fee projection changes your exit valuation by £2–3m on a 70-bed scheme. |
Your financial model probably shows year-one occupancy at 70–75%. In practice, new care homes open at around 20–30% occupancy and take 12–18 months to reach 85%.
During that period, you are paying:
• Full staffing costs from day one — you cannot open with a skeleton team
• Finance on the full development loan
• All running costs against partial income
On a 70-bed scheme, the gap between 30% and 85% occupancy represents roughly £25,000–35,000 per week in missed fee income. Over 15 months, that is £1.6–2.2m of cash the model needs to carry.
Some schemes finance this in. Others rely on the operator’s working capital. Either way, it needs to be explicitly modelled — not assumed away.
Buying an existing trading home sidesteps this entirely. The beds are already filled. That is part of what you pay for in the acquisition premium.
In order of impact on your return:
|
Factor |
Why it matters |
Realistic range |
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Fee rate |
Directly multiplies every line in the model |
£900–£2,200/week depending on location and care type |
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Occupancy |
85% is the standard assumption. 80% vs 90% changes EBITDARM by 12%+ |
Target 85%+ at stabilisation |
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Staffing cost |
The biggest operating cost. Agency use can push this above 70% of income |
55–65% well-managed; 70%+ is a problem |
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Build spec |
Higher spec costs more but supports higher fees and a lower exit yield |
£2,000–£3,500+/m² construction |
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Exit yield |
The difference between 6% and 8% yield is worth £3–5m on a standard scheme |
5.25–10% depending on quality |
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Bed count |
Below 50 beds, fixed costs kill the margin |
60–80 beds is the sweet spot |
Here is a quick way to pressure-test a project before you spend money on design.
The project: 70-bed nursing home, South East, mid-high spec, build to operate
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Input |
Assumption |
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Weekly fee rate (nursing, South East) |
£1,550/week |
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Occupancy target (stabilised) |
85% |
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Annual fee income at stabilisation |
70 × 0.85 × £1,550 × 52 = £4.8m |
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EBITDARM margin |
27% |
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EBITDARM |
£1.3m |
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Target exit yield |
7% |
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Implied valuation |
£18.6m |
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Total development cost (all-in) |
£19m |
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Gap |
-£400k — marginal |
That £400k gap is not a disaster. It sits within normal modelling tolerance, and you would expect CQC rating, lease length, and operator covenant to push the exit yield below 7% once the home is trading well. But it is not a slam dunk either.
Now change one assumption: the fee rate drops to £1,350 (a quieter market, or a lower-acuity mix than planned).
Annual income drops to £4.18m. EBITDARM at 27% is £1.13m. At 7% yield, the home is worth £16.1m. Against a £19m build cost, that is a £2.9m hole.
That is not a tweak. That is a project that does not work. And the only thing that changed was £200/week on the fee assumption.
A few things follow directly from this:
• Build cost is a lever you can control. Fee rates are not. You cannot force a market to pay more. You can choose a specification that supports the rates the market already pays.
• Spec up only if the fees support it. A £3,200/m² build in a £1,000/week market does not work. A £2,600/m² build in a £1,800/week market probably does.
• Occupancy risk is the thing most models understate. Model 12–18 months of sub-80% occupancy as a base case, not a downside case.
• Staffing cost matters as much as build cost. A well-designed building reduces staffing waste — efficient corridor layouts, right-sized bedrooms, good sightlines from nursing stations. It is a real operational saving, not a marketing point.
• Size is not optional. Below 55–60 beds, the fixed cost base makes the margin too tight unless you have a specialist premium (dementia, nursing, learning disabilities).
What weekly fee can I expect from a new care home?
Depends entirely on location and care type. Residential care averages £1,300/week nationally in 2026, nursing care around £1,535/week. South East homes typically earn 20–35% more. Get actual rates from local operators before you model anything.
What EBITDARM margin should I model?
26–29% is a realistic range for a well-run 60–80 bed home at stable occupancy. Below 20% the project is marginal. Above 32% is possible with a strong private-pay mix and tight staffing, but do not build that into a base case.
How long before a new care home is profitable?
Most new homes reach stable occupancy (85%+) after 12–18 months. They are cash-negative until then, typically by £25,000–35,000 per week on a 70-bed scheme. Budget for this explicitly. It is not a risk — it is a certainty.
At what yield does a care home transaction make sense?
Depends on the buyer. REITs and institutional investors target 5.25–6.5% on prime stock. Private operators buying to run will often accept lower yields because they capture both the property return and the operating profit. Secondary and older stock trades at 8–10%.
Does build quality affect valuation?
Yes, in two ways. A better-specified building supports higher fees, which directly increases EBITDARM. And it attracts a lower exit yield, which multiplies that EBITDARM into a higher valuation. The double effect is real — but only if the market your home sits in can actually pay premium fees.
At Care Home Builders we work through these numbers with developers and operators before anything goes on paper. If you are trying to work out whether a site or a build makes financial sense, we can help you test the model.
We deliver care home construction and refurbishment across London and the South